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        Overview of international military conflicts and security situation in 2020

        2020年國際軍事斗爭與安全形勢回望

        來源:China Military Online責任編輯:Xu Yi
        2020-12-24 16:47

        By Zhang Xiaotian, Xu Zhidong, Zhang Weiping

        張嘯天 徐志棟 張未平

        The year 2020 is coming to an end amid the rampant COVID-19 pandemic and ceaseless conflicts. As we look back on the past year, we see the novel coronavirus wreaking havoc across the world, major-country competition continuously escalating, the world situation being adjusted at a faster pace, regional hotspots popping up one after another, and all-terrain security risks on the rise. 2020 is a year when the old international order is falling apart more quickly, and the new landscape is being shaped with twists and turns. It marks the beginning of deep-going turbulences and changes in international military conflicts and security situation.

        伴隨著肆虐全球的新冠肺炎疫情和競相爆發的沖突事件,2020年即將過去?;赝@一年,新冠肺炎疫情全球擴散,大國競爭持續角力,世界格局加速調整,地區熱點此伏彼起,全域安全風險并行上升。這是舊的秩序加速坍塌的一年,也是新的格局曲折醞釀的一年,是國際軍事斗爭與安全形勢進入深度動蕩變革的起點。

        Adjustments of major countries' strategic layouts

        各大國競相調整戰略布局

        Historical laws tell us that the international system never evolves in a linear trajectory, nor does the rise and fall of powers, it is always a process of quantitative and qualitative accumulation, emergence, escalation, and restructuring.

        歷史規律表明,國際體系演變從來不是線性推進的,大國實力興衰也不是線性變化的,而是在量變和質變之間進行積累、涌現、迸發、躍升、重構的過程。

        The widespread COVID-19 in 2020 is nothing short of a war, which, though unable to comprehensively overthrow the world situation, is an important game-changer. Throwing its weight around throughout the year, the epidemic has again demonstrated the non-linear evolution of human society and world landscape and accelerated the development.

        2020年是新冠肺炎疫情肆虐之年,其影響類似于一場戰爭,雖然不能全面撼動原有世界格局,卻是推動世界格局轉變的重要一步。貫穿全年的新冠肺炎疫情,再次展示了人類社會與世界格局演變的非線性邏輯,加速了原有的發展節奏。

        With the epidemic still running amuck, the strength distribution of major nations, world security and development situation, and the way of international struggles are undergoing profound changes. In a strategic environment with mounting uncertainties, major countries like the US and Russia have actively made deployments to gain an edge.

        隨著疫情發展,大國實力分布、世界安全和發展形勢與國際斗爭方式正在發生重大變化。面對不確定性激增的戰略環境,美俄等大國為贏得主動,積極謀局布勢。

        Taking China and Russia as strategic adversaries, the Trump administration, guided by its "America first" policy and following such strategic plans as the US National Defense Strategy and Indo-Pacific Strategy, has accelerated its movements to promote a "whole-of-government strategy on China".

        美國特朗普政府視中俄為戰略競爭對手,在“美國優先”“美國第一”政策引導下,按照既定的《國防戰略》《印太戰略》等一系列戰略計劃,加速布局,推行“全政府對華戰略”。

        First, the US has intensified its ties with Taiwan region and pressed China harder at its doorstep. In March, Trump signed off on the so-called "TAIPEI ACT", which claimed that "the US government should consider increasing or decreasing its economic, security, and diplomatic engagement with nations according to their relations with Taiwan". In July, the US Senate in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 suggested "inviting Taiwan to participate in the RIMPAC military exercise and berthing American medical ships on the island". Regardless of warnings from Beijing, Washington passed bills on arms sales to Taiwan six times in 2020 that amounted to a total worth of more than $5.8 billion.

        一是強化非法的美臺合作關系,拉緊中國家門口的鎖鏈。3月,特朗普簽署“臺北法案”,要求美政府根據其他國家與臺灣關系加強或減少經濟、安全、外交聯系。7月,美國參議院在“2021年國防授權法案”中建議邀請臺灣參與“環太平洋軍事演習”以及美軍醫療艦??颗_灣事宜。美國無視中國大陸警告,2020年6次通過對臺軍售案,總價值高達58億美元之多。

        Second, the US has stepped up military operations in the South China Sea, China's maritime gateway to the south. In the first half of this year, American military aircraft operated more than 2,000 times in the region; in July, its dual-carrier formation held training and exercises there twice. These operations showed signs of shifting from close-in reconnaissance to provocation, pressuring, and combat exercises.

        二是加強在南海地區軍事活動,壓緊中國向南的海洋門戶。上半年,美軍機在南?;顒泳投噙_2000余次;7月份,美軍雙航母編隊兩次在南海舉行演訓。這些活動有從抵近偵察向挑釁施壓和作戰演練轉變的趨勢。

        Third, the US has intensified cooperation with its allies and partners to forge an "anti-China alliance". In November, the US, Japan, Australia, and India held a joint military exercise that stressed more on joint operation than security cooperation. The US and its allies regularly monitored China's military activities in far oceans and enhanced their military presence around China and in the entire Indo-Pacific region. On November 17, the US secretary of the navy called for the reactivation of the 1st Fleet closer to the border between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In the meantime, the US has acted faster to reduce and withdraw troops from other regions worldwide, and the troops, claimed the US Department of Defense, "will be redirected to engage in major-power strategic competition and maintain a strategic advantage".

        三是強化與盟友伙伴合作,企圖打造遏華聯盟。11月,美日澳印舉行聯合軍事演習,性質正在從所謂的海上安全合作向多國聯軍作戰轉變。美國及盟友常態化監視中國在遠洋地區的軍事活動,加強在中國周邊乃至整個印太地區軍事存在。11月17日,美海軍部長呼吁建立一支靠近印度洋和太平洋十字路口的“第一艦隊”。與此同時,美國加快從其他地區減兵撤兵進程,美國防部宣稱“撤出的兵力主要用于大國戰略競爭,確保在大國競爭中保持戰略優勢”。

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